THE DYNAMICS OF PENALTY KICK SUCCESS: A LOGISTIC REGRESSION STUDY OF VELOCITY AND ANGLE IN LIGA 1 INDONESIA

The successful execution of penalties takes an utmost significant position in any football match. It has both biomechanical and tactical complexities. Visualising from a physical lens, the velocity of the ball, the angle of the approach, and the placement of the shot directly impact the keeper's reaction time and anticipatory skill. This research examines 74 penalty kicks from Liga 1 Indonesia, during game week 30. This probabilistic model was developed using shot velocity and angle of approach towards the goal, and then visualised using a penalty kick scoring heat map and a velocity angle scatter diagram. The result indicated maximum penalty success rates mostly with shot velocities exceeding and shot angles of 5 to 10 degrees. The heat map demonstrated a distinct and overwhelming preference towards the goals' lower corners with the highest penalty shot success probability. Velocity and angle scatter concentration contours on the lower goal corners illustrated the shot's success. The final aim of this research was to prove the amount of scoring with the specific angles at which the shot was taken. The shot velocity and angle scatter plot indicated the keeper was unable to defend the shot with 25 degrees of elevation. This study suggests a highly nonlinear method for estimating shot placement success with respect to angle and velocity vectors. Thus, success from penalty kicks bears on both physical and strategic planning of how the shot will be taken.